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Prediction for CME (2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-20T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28649/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T18:00Z (-12.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-20T12:47Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 944
Longitude (deg): 020E
Latitude (deg): 15S
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: SE centre filament eruption, polluted in otherwise clear Lasco C3 and STEREO COR2 coronagraph imagery by near-concurrent NE prominence. Taking SE-ward lobe of amalgamated CME only, get 1AU crossing time of 22/1500UTC. MOSWOC Enlil is currently suggesting an erroneously fast 500km/s fast wind between now and this CME arrival, hence minor delay to nearer centre of ensemble at 22/1800UTC, although change is indicative of a slower transit rather than rigorously calculated. CME may yet interact with as yet unmodelled prominence and will be volatile. G2 considered most likely.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 39.43 hour(s)
Difference: -1.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-01-21T00:35Z

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